{"id":2883,"date":"2020-04-17T17:44:49","date_gmt":"2020-04-17T12:14:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/online.2iim.com\/cat-exam\/blogs\/?p=2883"},"modified":"2020-04-21T07:59:43","modified_gmt":"2020-04-21T02:29:43","slug":"iim-ahmedabad-selection-criterion-and-the-idea-of-conditional-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/online.2iim.com\/cat-exam\/blogs\/cat-gyan\/iim-ahmedabad-selection-criterion-and-the-idea-of-conditional-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"IIM Ahmedabad selection criterion and the idea of Conditional Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"IIM<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This article is a blast from the past when IIM Ahmedabad<\/a> introduced a clause for admitting engineers that mandates a minimum of ~78% in Engineering to be eligible for a call. Later due to severe backlash from the student community and media, they officially rescinded the clause.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

IIM Ahmedabad’s Selection Criteria<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

IIM Ahmedabad\u2019s selection criteria opened a can of worms and had people talking about how cruel it was to be born as an Engineer. Let us face it, if you are born in India into some type of families, you have only two choices, be an Engineer or be a loser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having said that, a great many students have taken this as an open reason to crib when they have no reason to<\/strong>. Let us see why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To cut a long story short, an engineer cannot get called for an IIM Ahmedabad interview if he did not score an average of 80% in 10th and 12th and a minimum of 78% in Engineering. It does not matter if you have scored 99.99th percentile in CAT, you cannot get into IIM Ahmedabad if your BE percentage is 76%. (Note<\/strong>: This requirement is not true<\/strong> now)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conditional Probability <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Now, let us look at this within the framework of conditional probability<\/a>. P(A \/ <\/strong>B) is defined as the Probability of event A happening given that event B has already happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, the big crib is that Prob (IIM Ahmedabad interview \/ <\/strong>B.E. score of 77.5%) = 0. However, this is not necessarily the correct metric to look at to see how cruel the rule is. Scoring 77.5% is a necessary condition to have a shot at this, but how close is it to being a sufficient condition is key.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To give an extreme example \u2013 Prob (IIM Ahmedabad admit \/ <\/strong>student does not take CAT) is also zero. This does not mean that merely taking the CAT will ensure an admit. In this case, the condition taking CAT is necessary but not even close to being sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we need to think of is this wonderful Probability (B.E. score being the reason for missing out  \/<\/strong> student did not make it to IIM Ahmedabad). If a particular engineer did not make it to IIM Ahmedabad, what are the odds that it was the BE score that prevented him\/her from doing so? Now, if that number is high, this is indeed an unfair criterion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Math part of it<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Now, let us put a framework on to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there are three possible reasons, A, B and C for not getting into IIM Ahmedabad. Then we can represent them with a diagram like this \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Three<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, if we have to attribute reason B as the key determinant for missing out then that should be the region where B alone is the reason. In other words, the region where an \u2018x\u2019 is marked. Any other region would include other factors also playing a part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, for our specific scenario, let us include only two factors \u2013 CAT percentile and score being less than 80%. The diagram would look like this \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Less<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, Venn diagrams do not have a notion scale. But I have drawn this diagram deliberately like this to convey that the big circle incorporates 99.67% of the candidates. The least percentile for an engineer to get a call from IIM Ahmedabad is 99.67. So, x can at the maximum be 0.33% of the candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, in the worst case scenario 0.33% of the candidates appearing for CAT miss out because their engineering percentage is too low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hold on, that\u2019s not it. Let us add some more facts and assumptions (All you aspiring MBAs, also keep this as an important lesson. If you are peddling some hypothesis, you should always talk about facts and assumptions as if they can be used interchangeably. As long as you can incorporate your<\/em> assumptions in along with the facts, you can peddle any theory).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IIM Ahmedabad gives admits to probably ~180 engineers from general category, and they probably call around ~500 engineers from the general category for the interviews. Now, under the scenario that 1.65 lakh people take the exam, 0.33% of this is roughly 550. Among the top 550 candidates based on CAT score, IIM Ahmedabad calls ~500 engineers. Assuming that around 20-30 students securing above 99.67 percentile are likely to be non-engineers, only around 20-30 engineers who score above 99.67 percentile miss out. So, probably only around 20 students miss out because of their UG mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, the number of students who miss out purely because of their B.E. percentages is possibly only around 10. Not 0.33% of test-takers, but around 0.006% of test-takers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, probably half the engineers (or more) will have a score of less than 78%. How come only 20 engineers miss out? This is because there is a very high correlation between academic records and performance in CAT. So, the folks who score very high in CAT are likely to have scored high in 10th, 12th and UG and vice versa. So, what the 99.67 percentile cut off number tells us is that the students who have missed out due to other criteria are very unlikely to have scored 99.67 as well. A point that is completely lost on many students<\/strong>. The game is not rigged against you. The game is rigged against candidates who do not deserve to get in. In other words, it is a meritocracy. One of the best B-schools in India wants to make sure that they select only the best candidates available in India. Who woulda thunk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To speak without all this probability mumbo-jumbo \u2013 An overwhelming number of engineers who have scored less than 78% in B.E. and missed out on IIM A call would have missed out on the IIM A call even if they had a 98% in their engineering. 

To put it differently, the only Engineers who have a right to crib about IIM A\u2019s high B.E. cut-off criterion are the ones who can and do score 99.67+. If you score 99.6 and do get a call from IIM A, it is not because of your percentages, it is because of your percentile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, every time you feel like IIM A is conning you out of an interview call, tell yourself you have to get 99.67 to deserve the right to voice that crib.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In case you are among the 20 unlucky souls who score above 99.67 and still do not have a call, my commiserations <\/strong>are with you. Chances are you have secured an admit into IIM B or IIM C and you have told yourself that you will never again miss out on anything because of some silly criterion. Probably a great lesson learnt, and one for which missing out on IIM A might be not such a big price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rajesh Balasubramanian<\/em><\/a> takes the CAT every year and is a 4-time CAT 100 percentiler. He likes few things more than teaching Math and insists to this day that he is a better teacher than exam-taker.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IIM A selection criteria appears to be rigged against engineers. But, if we look at it mathematically, there’s reason why it is not. This blog explains it all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false},"categories":[159],"tags":[28,29,83,156,157,126,155,158],"yoast_head":"\nIIM Ahmedabad selection criterion and the idea of Conditional Probability - 2IIM CAT Preparation Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is it true that IIM Ahmedabad selection criteria is rigged against engineers? Will low score in UG hamper my chances? 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