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Question 19 : Five jumbled up sentences (labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), related to a topic, are given
below. Four of them can be put together to form a coherent paragraph. Identify the odd
sentence and key in the number of that sentence as your answer.
1. Part of
the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to
need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
2. The tight connection between
forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early
interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
3. This was true even
though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
4. One frequently cited
study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when
aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of
members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a
confidential prediction market.
5. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing
forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions
of experts.lls "is a
natural response to three years of the pandemic" says a senior recruiter at Cenlar FSB.
All sentences except 2 relate to the idea of forecasting by non-experts versus that by experts. If the sentences were to be arranged in a paragraph, 1 would be the opening sentence. 43 is a strong link; the 'latter' referred to in 3 is the US intelligence community that 4 mentions. 5 offers a good conclusion to the paragraph based on the preceding sentences. 1435 is a cogent paragraph. 2, which is about the connection between forecasting and building a model of the world is not related to the contents of the paragraph.
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